SRINAGAR: Renowned meteorologist Sonam Lotus has cautioned against drawing early conclusions about the upcoming winter in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, saying that although global weather models indicate the possibility of a mild winter, the region’s complex atmospheric conditions make long-range forecasts uncertain.
Responding to reports suggesting that the coming winter could be less cold than usual, Lotus said the El Niño influence was present but stressed that it was still too early to make a definite assessment of the winter season.
Although the El Niño effect is there and it has strengthened, we cannot say with certainty what the winter will be like two or three months in advance,” Sonam Lotus said.
Lotus said weather conditions in northern India, particularly Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, can differ significantly from broader global patterns because of the region’s complex atmospheric processes.He recalled that similar predictions made earlier this year had not necessarily matched the weather experienced in Jammu and Kashmir
In April and May, it was being said that La Niña was coming and that there would be less rain or snowfall. But the situation turned out differently, and Jammu and Kashmir received good rainfall,” Lotus said.He also cautioned people against relying on sensationalised weather claims circulating on social media, saying that weather forecasting involves complex atmospheric interactions and cannot be reduced to simplistic predictions.
Everybody has become a weather expert. People are sensationalising things on social media,” he said, emphasising that atmospheric processes are highly complex and require scientific assessment.Sonam Lotus said a clearer picture of the winter season would emerge as the season approaches and more reliable forecasting data becomes available.“According to the global models, it seems that it will be a mild winter. But still, we cannot conclude it at this stage,” he said.
Meanwhile, giving a short-term weather outlook, Lotus said weather conditions across Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh were expected to remain largely favourable over the coming days.He said the weather would improve from Friday, with predominantly dry conditions expected from September 19 to 23
